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What can we expect in Afghanistan next year

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US may leave about 6000 troops in Afghanistan

KANDAHAR, Afghanistan (June 13, 2010) — Afghan...

KANDAHAR, Afghanistan (June 13, 2010) — Afghan President Hamid Karzai attends a shura with hundreds of tribal and religious leaders in Kandahar, the core area of Taliban insurgency. The gathering highlighted the need for support of NATO-led forces in order to stabilize parts of the province. (U.S. Navy photo by Petty Officer 1st Class Mark O’Donald/Released) (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

Kabul’s Karzia is just gave us additional proof that he has gone totally bonkers.

“Yesterday’s bombings (in Afghanistan) in the name of the Taliban were aimed at serving the foreigners and supporting the presence of the foreigners in Afghanistan and keeping them in Afghanistan by intimidating us,”

He is now pretending to be anti-American and is speaking like Al-Qaeda. The US puppet seems to have forgotten that he is “president” of Afghanistan only because the US accepts him as one, and only as long it wishes him to war that crown. He was brought in riding the turrets of US tanks amid massive rigging in two so called “elections”.

English: Senator Chuck Hagel (R - Nebraska) me...

English: Senator Chuck Hagel (R – Nebraska) meets Afghan Interim Chairman Hamid Karzai and Minister of Women Affairs Sima Simar at a USAID ceremony announcing the first U.S. funded programs for Afghanistan reconstruction. (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

Gwynne Dyer writing for Bangor Daily News reminds the world and Mr. Karzai about the fate of Mr. Najibullah.

“Najibullah was the Communist leader who ruled Afghanistan during the latter stages of the Soviet occupation and immediately after the Russians left. When the Taliban finally took Kabul in 1996, he was tortured, castrated, dragged through the streets behind a truck, and then hanged from a traffic light. It can be safely assumed that Karzai and his cronies, when they contemplate the forthcoming American departure, are acutely aware of this precedent.”

Karzai at the 2011 Afghan Independence Day in ...

Karzai at the 2011 Afghan Independence Day in Kabul, which is held every year on August 19 to commemorate Afghanistan’s independence from British control over its foreign affairs. (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

The extreme right is nowhere to be found. The left has been writing about how few the forces in Afghanistan should be. Dan Murphy writing for the Christian Science Monitor says “US in Afghanistan: Why throw more good money after bad?”

He later reminds us with “Remember “the surge” masterminded by Gen. David Petraeus?”

He asks these poignant questions:

“There will be lots of talk in the coming months of not squandering all those lives already lost, all those billions of dollars sprinkled across Afghanistan.

But how many more lives and how much money will be required to ratify all that’s already been lost? Will a few hundred more American dead change anything? Almost certainly not. Afghanistan’s president doesn’t seem to like the US, many of its soldiers seem happy to turn their guns on the US troops training them, and corruption is rampant.”

He places the two facts on the ground: 1) President Hamid Karzai recently ordered US Special Forces out of Wardak after accusing them of torture and murder in the province. 2) Defense Secretary Chuck Hagel’s pleading with Mr. Karzai on a visit yesterday to relent on Wardak apparently fell on deaf ears

He characterizes Karzai’s dilemna succinctly:

“With the gravy train pulling into the station he’s going to have to wheel and deal with the Taliban, Pakistan, private armies established thanks to US convoy protection contracts, opium lords, and prominent members of Afghanistan’s various ethnic groups, including his own Pashtuns.

That came quietly to end last year, with little change in the political facts on the ground.”

The newly confirms US Secretary of Defense, Chuck Hagel defined America’s “clear and achievable” objective in Afghanistan: “to have Afghans assume full responsibility for security by the end of 2014.” As one analyt puts it –”America’s core aim has narrowed dramatically: to hand over power and withdraw.”

The new goal, derisively defined by the Republicans “Cut and Run” is certainly clear and achievable. The general feeling is “Indeed, the United States could accomplish Afghan responsibility right now, simply by leaving.”

VP Biden is still adamant that the US goal is to get out– “come hell or high water.”

Rupee News echoes the fact that “the exit strategy will be more about exit than strategy”. The aim of what remains of the war is to leave.

After a decade of bombing and droning, the war in Afghanistan is too costly to be considered a success. It is more of a defeat than the lost war in Southeast Asia called Vietnam.

The outgoing head of U.S. Central Command General James Mattis recommended that around 13,600 U.S. troops stay on in Afghanistan. But this guy didnt have a clue, and is no longer in charge of Afghanistan. The realistic asnwer is around 6,500 troops.

He correclty describes the end scenario.. “To suddenly leave sends a signal that the Taliban is winning. This could produce a tipping point, or a rapid and unexpected negative turn in the war, as local allies defect, fence sitters jump over to the insurgent side, civil servants stop coming to work, and investors abandon a sinking ship”.

Vali Nasr, a brilliant analyst and one of the few who gets it writes in the latest Foreign Policy that Obama is fast “washing his hands” of the Afghanistan War.

Dominic Tierney – Dominic Tierney is associate professor of political science at Swarthmore College is going against the grin when he says “Getting American troops home safely is obviously vital. But it’s not the primary purpose of the mission. We don’t want a moon landing. After all, the moon today is a dusty and arid land where the harsh atmosphere has bleached American flags into white pennants.”

The fact remains that Afghanistan is fast becoming a fading memory for the US, for American politicians and for the Obama Administration. A casual visit to the bookstore will tell us that there are no new books on Afghanistan. Similarly, there are no articles on Afghanistan. I scoured all major magazines on bookshelves and there were no major stories about Kabul. Even FP –the harbinger of right wing idiocy didn’t have Afghanistan on its mind.

Rupee News has always predicted the scenario discussed by Gwynne Dyer “The likeliest post-occupation outcome in Afghanistan, therefore, is a reversion to the situation that prevailed there before 2001. Karzai will either leave or be tortured and killed, as will most of his senior collaborators. Pakistan will be the dominant influence in Taliban-controlled parts of the country, and the minorities will have to fend for themselves.”


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